Suzuki leaving MotoGP: Possible scenarios for 2023...

The official announcement is still pending, but it’s clear that Suzuki intends to leave MotoGP at the end of the 2022 season.
Joan Mir, Suzuki
Joan Mir, Suzuki

The reasons for Suzuki’s shock decision, after winning the world championship as recently as 2020 and having signed (last year) to 168澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果历史:remain in MotoGP until 2026, are assumed to be financial.

For now, all that is understood is that the controversial call was made by Suzuki’s📖 Hamamatsu headquarters and then relayed to the stunned race team during Monday’s Jerez test.

But what happens next? Here🌳 are some of the possible scenarios✱...

Suzuki 500 podiums
Suzuki 500 podiums

Suzuki takes a complete break from MotoGP

Sadly, this currently appear⛎s most likely and would see the 2020 world cha𒆙mpions close down the GSX-RR project, disband the race team and surrender its grid slots at the end of the season.

Under such circumsta🧔nces, the best-case scenario would see the existing Suzuki race team 'reborn' and continue in revised form, using machinery from another manufacturer.

But is creating such a 'new' team even possible under existing Dorna-IRTA𒁃-MSMA cont🥃racts?

Dorna seems to think so: "Dorna will decide on the ideal number of riders and teams racing in the MotoGP class from 2023," said the commercial rights holder, 168澳洲幸运5官方开💯奖结果历史:in response to the Suzuki rumours.

Aprilia, which would otherwise become the ꦉonly factory without a satellite project 🦋for 2023, is already tipped as a likely supplier for any replacement Independent team.

However, Dorna also suggested new 'official factories' could&nbs🐈p;be interested in stepping in:

"Dorna continues to receive high levels of interest from a number of both official factories and Independent Teams looking to join the MotoGP grid... Interest from these parties has♑ been re-confirmed in the past 24 hours."

As ever, funding would be the key issue.

While a new manufacturer would need to cover all their own racing costs, Dorna provides around 5 million euros to each Independent team to cover bike leasing costs. However, as RNF founder Razlan Razali told mahbx.com earlier this year, a satellite budget in the region of 11-13 milꦕlion euros is needed per season.

Aside from a dream, big-money sponsor or new factory arriving to take over the current Suzuki team, a partnership with an existing, well-funded Moto2 or Moto3 squad would also help fil♉l the financial void and keep the team going.

Jenson Button (GBR) Brawn BGP001 Wins, Turkish F1, Istanbul Park, 5th-7th June,
Jenson Button (GBR) Brawn BGP001 Wins, Turkish F1, Istanbul Park, 5th-7th June,

Could Livio Suppo do a Ross Brawn?

Dorna has warned Suzuki 'the conditions of their contract to race in MotoGP do not allow for them to take this decision unilate💧rally’, but also admit Suzuki could depart 'following an agreement between both parties’.

Given the prospect of early contract termination and the resulting need to reach an agཧreement, might Suzuki be ‘persuaded’ to continue funding its race team for at least 2023, even if the team uses another brand of bike?

Such a scenario is not unheard of.

When Honda closed its factory F1 team due to financial reasons in 2008, a m🐓anagement buyout for a reported £1 was led byꦑ Ross Brawn, resulting in the creation of 'Brawn GP'.

Despite switching to Mercedes engines, Honda agreed to provide a rumoured 100 million budget to keep its fꦫormer team going for the following season (rather than see it collapse) and Brawn sensationally won that year's world championship with Jenson Button.

Alex Rins, Indonesia MotoGP test, 12 February
Alex Rins, Indonesia MotoGP test, 12 February

Suzuki announces a ‘temporary MotoGP suspension’ (again)

The last 💎time Suzuki withdrew from MotoGP, at the end of 2011, it was framed as deciding to ‘suspend temporarily its participation’ due to ‘tough circumstances’ in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

B♓ut on that occasion, and unlike Kawasaki a few💎 years earlier, Suzuki was stepping aside just before the start of the next five-year contract cycle between the manufacturers and Dorna (2012-2016).

Suzuki also gave a timeline for a planned comeback, having ‘an eye to returning to MotoGP in 2014’ and insisted it would spend the time away ‘de𓃲veloping a꧑ competitive new racing machine.’

Such assurances helped soothe relations with Dorna, which duly granted Suzuki grid sl꧃ots for its return (a year later than originally planned) in 2015.

While the need to extract itself from the current Dorna contract greatly c👍omplicates a 2022 split, might Suzuki again be planning a 'temporary suspension’ and 🌃name a return date?

If so, the obvious dates in the foreseeable future would coincide wi𓃲th MotoGP's introduction of ‘non-fossil’ origin fuel: 40% fro💧m 2024 and 100% from 2027.

Joan Mir, Spanish MotoGP, 30 April
Joan Mir, Spanish MotoGP, 30 April

The GSX-RR continues as a satellite project

In order to save some money but still keep a finger on MotoGP technology and arguably honour its remaining contract term, Suzuki could close its factory race team, but keep the GSX-RR project alive by supplying machines and technical support to an Indep⛎endent team.

In other words, a similar type of situation to the Aprilia and Gresini pa💙rtnership from 2015-2021.

Since all of the present satellite teams have contracts wi🐷th manufacturers for 2023, it would require a new race te🌺am to be formed.

Regardless of how strong the Suzuki support might or might not💧 be for such a satellite project, as long as the grid places were owned by a private team, it would be eligible for the (5 million) Independent Dorna funding.

Marco Melandri, Hayate, 2009
Marco Melandri, Hayate, 2009

A Kawasaki-style ‘Hayate’ entry

This is the most extreme extension of the satellite concept but cannot be entirely excluded given the potential similarities between Kawasaki’s earlier MotoGP exit and Suzuki’s to-be-confirmed&nbs🌸p;2022 departure.

Kawasaki also left before the end of the five-year Dorna contract cycle, announcing it would ‘suspend’ participation in MotoGP from𒉰 2009 ‘due to the influence of the g🥂lobal economic crises’. However, it was ultimately persuaded to keep a scaled-down, unofficial version of its former Kawasaki Racing Team alive for one more season.

Competing under the ‘Haya🥃te’ banner, lone rider Marco Melandri took the anonymous, all-black ZX-RR, devoid of any Kawasaki logos or branding, to a podium finish and tenth in the world championship.

While highly unlikely, given Dorna has made clear a contract settlement would need to be reached, and the outcome last time around involve🎃d the unofficial ‘Hayate’ project, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that unbranded Suzuki(s) coul꧋d be on the grid in 2023. 

Given Dorna's comments about ongoing interest from other factories, might Suzuki even be encouraged to reach an agreement with a new ෴manufacturer to take over/rebrand the already competitive GSX-RRs instead of trying to start a MotoGP project from scratch?

Much will come down to the nature of🍷 any 'agree🐎ment' between Suzuki and Dorna, while as things stand the remaining Japanese factories (Honda and Yamaha) are set to be outnumbered by the European constructors (Ducati, KTM, Aprilia).

Whichever path is taken by the Suzuki project, forওmer title winner Joan Mir is now likely to be quickly snapp🦩ed up by a rival factory for 2023, with team-mate Alex Rins (currently fourth and top Suzuki, with two podiums) also sure to have alternative options if he can remain at the sharp end of this year's championship standings.

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